Traders assign a 97.8% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign before 2027, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and his established political position entering the term. Incumbents typically complete their terms absent extraordinary circumstances, supported by party loyalty, electoral mandate, and institutional incentives against early departure. Recent polling trends and campaign statements show no signals of health-related withdrawal or internal pressure that would alter this baseline. While the consensus draws from skin-in-the-game assessments across comparable past administrations, low-probability scenarios such as acute medical events, major legal developments triggering loss of congressional support, or unforeseen personal factors could still prompt reconsideration within the resolution window.