Trump administration efforts have included staff reductions of roughly half since early 2025, multiple executive orders directing reorganization, and interagency agreements shifting select programs to other departments, yet full elimination of the Department of Education requires new legislation from Congress under the 1979 statute that created it. No such bill has advanced to passage despite repeated proposals, with appropriations committees maintaining funding levels and some Republican senators joining Democrats in opposing certain transfers. The 2026 midterm elections and Senate procedural thresholds further limit prospects before the 2027 deadline. Trader consensus at 98.5 percent for no reflects these structural barriers, though late-session action in a lame-duck period or shifts after the midterms could still alter the outcome.