**No tariff dividend has been enacted or funded as of mid-October 2026, supporting traders’ strong consensus against creation by year-end.** Proposals for a $2,000 per-person payment, floated in late 2025 and tied to tariff revenue, advanced no further after the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling struck down the underlying IEEPA tariffs. A narrower congressional alternative remains stalled in committee. Recent pledges of larger midterms-linked payments face the same barriers: tariff collections of roughly $210 billion annually fall far short of the trillions required for broad distributions, and any program would need new legislation that has not materialized. Ongoing tariff actions under other authorities continue, but none include dividend mechanics or appropriations. With only weeks left before the December 31, 2026, cutoff, the absence of legislative or executive steps keeps implied probabilities heavily weighted against resolution in the affirmative.