The persistent "firewall" maintained by mainstream parties against the AfD continues to shape trader views on its prospects for entering a state government in 2026. Despite the party's landmark September victory in Saxony-Anhalt—securing 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, just short of a majority—negotiations have stalled, with no formal coalition partners emerging and limited success attracting individual defections. The AfD secured the state parliament speakership in early October with some cross-party support, yet the December vote for minister-president remains uncertain, as the BSW has signaled potential abstention rather than active backing. Similar exclusion efforts in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern reinforce the pattern. This dynamic underpins the 57% implied probability for "no," reflecting the structural barriers that have historically prevented AfD participation in state executives despite rising electoral strength.