The German federal electoral calendar positions the next regular Bundestag vote for 2029, so traders assign 64.5% probability that the sitting Chancellor remains in office through the end of 2027. This reflects current coalition stability and the high procedural and political hurdles to triggering a snap election or forcing a resignation. Lower-priced alternatives such as Hendrik Wüst at 13.5% or Alice Weidel at 5.3% would require either an early vote or a leadership transition within the governing parties, outcomes viewed as possible but not probable given recent state-level polling trends and the absence of acute government crises in the past month. Scheduled events including potential 2027 state elections or European Parliament developments could still shift these implied probabilities if they expose coalition fractures or alter party leadership dynamics.