Russia's recent large-scale ballistic missile strikes on Kyiv, including a barrage of 21 missiles in three waves on October 21-22 that damaged residential areas, energy infrastructure, and civilian sites, represent the dominant factor shaping trader views. These attacks occurred hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled readiness to resume U.S.-mediated negotiations with Ukraine next month. Ongoing Russian aerial operations targeting Ukrainian power grids and cities, combined with Ukrainian drone responses toward Moscow, reinforce expectations of continued strikes in the near term. Market pricing for specific dates reflects this pattern of escalation amid stalled diplomacy, though scheduled talks or shifts in U.S. involvement could alter the pace of operations within the resolution windows.