Iran’s relations with Syria have deteriorated sharply since Bashar al-Assad’s fall in late 2024, removing Tehran’s key regional ally and land corridor to Hezbollah. The new Syrian authorities have publicly warned Iran against interference or efforts to spread instability, while Iranian statements have urged resistance against the transitional government. Pro-Iran networks remain active in southern Syria, recruiting locally and preparing attacks primarily against Israeli forces, prompting repeated IDF strikes on Iranian-linked targets near Damascus and the border as recently as mid-October 2026. These tensions, combined with Iran’s broader regional setbacks, shape trader assessments of whether direct Iranian strikes or targeting operations against Syrian territory or forces will occur within the market’s timeframe.