Anthropic holds the strongest market-implied position at 68.5% for topping LiveBench Mathematics by end of November, driven by its Claude Opus and Fable series consistently posting top scores on math-heavy subsets of LiveBench and aligned benchmarks such as FrontierMath and AIME evaluations. OpenAI models like o3-mini and GPT-5 variants lead overall LiveBench rankings and delivered hundreds of new mathematical results from an internal frontier system in early October, yet trader consensus assigns them only 17% odds, reflecting that these advances have not yet translated to the specific LiveBench Mathematics leaderboard. Google, Chinese labs, and others trail far behind at single-digit or sub-1% implied probabilities. With roughly six weeks until resolution, a late-November model update from any lab remains the key swing factor that could alter the current ordering.