Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability against Donald Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026, primarily because no U.S. president holds unilateral authority to alter the official name of an international waterway governed by longstanding geographic conventions and recognized by bodies such as the International Hydrographic Organization. The strait lies in a geopolitically sensitive region involving Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, where any name change would require coordinated diplomatic recognition rather than a domestic executive action. No public statements, executive orders, or campaign commitments from Trump or administration officials have signaled intent to pursue such a step. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a symbolic presidential directive or media announcement, though these would face immediate practical barriers from map publishers, shipping authorities, and foreign governments, with limited time remaining before the resolution date.