Meta leads the market-implied odds at 22% for third place in the Text Arena Math leaderboard by end-December 2026, followed by Moonshot at 14.8%, with Anthropic and Google tied near 12%. Recent arena data shows Google’s Gemini 4 Argon and multiple Anthropic Claude Opus/Fable variants dominating top Elo ratings in math-specific user votes, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Moonshot’s Kimi K3 deliver competitive scores that position those labs for a potential third-place finish. Strong showings from cost-effective or open-weight entries from Z.ai, Alibaba, and DeepSeek add uncertainty, as rapid model iterations and benchmark volatility over the next two months could shift relative lab standings before resolution.