**Trader consensus on Starbucks (SBUX) Q4 global comparable store sales growth centers on the 7–9% range at 42% implied probability, reflecting sustained U.S. momentum from the “Back to Starbucks” plan.** Q3 global comps rose 7.9% (U.S. +7.9%, transactions +4.2%, ticket +3.5–3.6%), driven by menu innovation, Green Apron Service improvements, fall promotions, and loyalty gains. Management guided U.S. Q4 comps at 6.5% or better (implying global near 6%), while analysts project North American same-store sales of roughly 6.7–7.5%. The 5–7% bucket (28.5%) and 9–11% bucket (22%) capture variance from potential lapping effects, store closures rolling off, and any Q4 softness in traffic or consumer spending ahead of the October 29 earnings release. Market-implied odds price in continued operational leverage but acknowledge uncertainty around FY2027 guidance and margin sustainability.