Recent CFTC proposals to classify sports event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as swaps under federal derivatives rules have reinforced trader views that these markets will avoid gambling tax treatment. The October 9 rulemaking distinguishes event contracts from casino-style wagers while carving out traditional sportsbooks, aligning with CFTC oversight of exchanges rather than state gambling authorities. Ongoing circuit splits and New Jersey’s Supreme Court petition highlight jurisdictional uncertainty, yet the absence of IRS guidance classifying contracts as wagers and continued platform operation under federal commodity rules support the 77.5% implied probability for “No.” Volume surges tied to NFL and college football seasons further underscore the markets’ established role without immediate tax reclassification.