**Governor Gavin Newsom’s opposition to Proposition 40, combined with his endorsement of countermeasure Proposition 42, has reinforced trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires’ net worth will not take effect.** Opponents led by Sergey Brin have spent more than $205 million on two competing ballot measures designed to nullify Prop 40 even if it secures a majority, while recent polls show only narrow or divided support amid voter confusion over the package of tax initiatives. Additional factors include anticipated litigation over valuation and constitutionality, documented billionaire departures that have already reduced the potential tax base, and California’s historical resistance to tax measures on the ballot. These dynamics sustain the current 78% implied probability that the measure will fail to become law.