Recent statewide polls through mid-October show Amendment 3 support at 50-55% among likely voters, well short of the 60% threshold required for passage and leaving substantial undecided voters. Opposition has grown as voters learn of the projected $11.8 billion annual revenue loss to counties and municipalities, raising concerns over cuts to public safety, parks, libraries, and hospitals. The measure, placed on the November 3 ballot via a June special session, expands the non-school homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 before indexing to inflation, while capping non-homestead assessment growth at 5%. An August court ruling forced a neutral ballot title after rejecting the original phrasing as misleading. These factors, combined with limited unified campaigning and bipartisan skepticism, underpin trader consensus that the referendum will fall short.