Elevated inflation risks from global oil shocks tied to Middle East tensions and rising fuel prices continue to shape South African Reserve Bank (SARB) policy expectations ahead of its November 19 meeting. Headline CPI stood at 4.4% in August, with the bank projecting averages of 4.4% for 2026, a peak above 5% later this year, and a return to the 3% target only in late 2027 or 2028 amid upside risks including potential El Niño effects. The SARB's September unanimous 25-basis-point hike to 7.25% and its Quarterly Projection Model signal a broadly stable rate path through year-end, supporting trader consensus around no change. Weak 1.2% 2026 growth forecasts and meeting-by-meeting guidance further anchor market-implied odds, though fresh October CPI data could influence final positioning.