Recent October MPC action, which raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent and shifted the stance to calibrated tightening, has anchored trader expectations for a follow-up 25-basis-point increase at the December 2-4 meeting. Inflation data and projections underpin this positioning: headline CPI rose to 4.8 percent in August with core momentum strengthening, while the central bank now forecasts a 6 percent peak in the October-December quarter before easing to 5.7 percent. Broadening price pressures, delayed input-cost pass-through, elevated crude oil, and supply risks from a deficient monsoon support further tightening despite resilient 7.1 percent GDP growth. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus around incremental policy normalization rather than a larger move or pause.