Recent RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser comments highlighting a “materially worse” inflation outlook and upside risks to expectations have driven market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point cash rate hike at the November 3 meeting to 66.1 percent. Headline inflation reached 4.0 percent year-over-year in August while the trimmed mean remained stuck near 3.6 percent, well above the 2–3 percent target, with fuel costs from Middle East tensions adding near-term pressure ahead of the September-quarter CPI release on October 28. Although unemployment rose to a five-year high of 4.7 percent in September, signaling labor-market easing, traders appear to view persistent core inflation and the Board’s recent hawkish tone as outweighing policy lags and slower growth. No-change pricing at 32.5 percent reflects uncertainty over whether the data will justify another move after four 2026 hikes to 4.60 percent.