Recent softening in Australia's labor market has anchored trader sentiment around a hold at the current 4.60% cash rate for the RBA's December meeting, with the implied probability of no change at 70%. September employment unexpectedly declined 39,300 while the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high of 4.7%, prompting markets to sharply reduce November hike odds and temper December expectations. Persistent inflation pressures, including August CPI at 4.0% year-over-year and trimmed-mean measures steady at 3.6%, plus upside risks from elevated oil prices and domestic capacity constraints, continue to support the RBA's hawkish September hike and minutes. Yet the weaker jobs print has tilted the near-term balance toward a pause ahead of the November 3 decision and forthcoming inflation releases, aligning with the market-implied path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions