NVIDIA’s company guidance of 74% non-GAAP gross margin, plus or minus 50 basis points, for the fiscal third quarter ending in October 2026 underpins the dominant 73–75% outcome in this market. Management highlighted rising high-bandwidth memory costs amid surging AI demand as the main sequential pressure after the prior quarter’s 75% result, though strong Blackwell Ultra mix and initial Vera Rubin shipments are expected to provide some offset. Traders appear to view the guidance as realistic given NVIDIA’s pricing power and supply constraints, with limited odds assigned to outcomes above 77% or below 71%. The next key catalyst is the earnings release around November 17, where actual results and any updated commentary on memory pricing or China exposure could shift sentiment.