Israel’s October 27 parliamentary election drives the elevated odds for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as polls show his Likud party and coalition falling short of a Knesset majority amid gains by opposition parties led by Gadi Eisenkot. France’s minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu faces ongoing protests, budget disputes, and unrest that could trigger no-confidence votes or early instability ahead of the 2027 presidential vote. Spain’s snap November 29 election, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after parliamentary defeats on housing measures, adds near-term risk amid coalition fragility and scandals. Trader consensus prices these electoral and governance pressures as the primary near-term catalysts while assigning the highest probability to no leadership change before year-end, reflecting uncertainty over whether any single ouster will materialize first.