High primary turnout exceeding 1.1 million voters in August 2026, combined with absentee ballots running 17% ahead of 2022 levels at the same point, has shaped trader expectations for Minnesota's November 3 Senate contest between Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya. Expanded same-day and automatic voter registration have added nearly 200,000 registrants since 2024, while polls indicate strong Democratic enthusiasm and overall excitement near 85%. These elements support the market's concentration on the 2.75M-2.9M range as the most probable outcome, reflecting a competitive open-seat race that sustains engagement without reaching presidential-year participation. Factors such as further early-voting surges or shifts in independent turnout could consolidate support toward higher or lower brackets in the final days.