The non-competitive nature of the Arkansas U.S. Senate race, where incumbent Tom Cotton holds a double-digit polling lead over Hallie Shoffner, anchors trader expectations for turnout in the 900K-975K range. Historical precedent from the 2022 Senate contest, which produced roughly 873K votes, supports this band, while the absence of tight margins or high national stakes limits broad mobilization. Recent Republican get-out-the-vote investments and early voting provide a floor through base participation, yet the race's solid Republican rating and widening polling gap reduce upside pressure above 975K. Lower bands remain possible only if Democratic enthusiasm stays suppressed in a low-drama environment.