Recent preliminary data from Mexico’s Indicador Oportuno de la Actividad Económica (IOAE) have positioned the 3.0-3.5% range as the leading outcome, with a 40.4% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on a rebound in Q3 2026 GDP after weaker Q1 and Q2 readings. The IOAE signals annual growth near 3.4%, supported by a 0.99% quarter-on-quarter advance, driven by surging exports of computer equipment, manufacturing gains, and public investment. This momentum follows Q2’s 1.4% quarterly expansion and contrasts with the full-year 2026 consensus near 1.4-1.5%. Official IGAE and GDP releases in coming weeks represent the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if revisions align with or diverge from these leading indicators.