SpaceX’s established Falcon 9 cadence, combined with the current October 2026 manifest showing roughly eight to ten confirmed or scheduled missions through mid-month, underpins the 90.5% market-implied odds on fewer than 14 total launches. Multiple Starlink, rideshare, and national security flights have already occurred, while remaining slots through October 24 cluster around weekly intervals at Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, leaving limited room for additional attempts before month-end. Weather, booster turnaround constraints, and regulatory windows historically cap monthly totals near this range. A surge past 14 would require several unscheduled missions or unusually rapid Starship integration, outcomes traders view as low-probability given visible operational pacing.