Recent receipt of a new Federal Police inquiry by Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF) on alleged money laundering links between Flávio Bolsonaro and lawyer Willer Tomaz, assigned to Justice Alexandre de Moraes around mid-October 2026, has not advanced to formal charges or arrest. A separate ongoing inquiry into film financing remains at the investigative stage, with the Federal Police recently requesting deadline extensions. As a sitting senator, any prosecution requires STF procedural steps including Prosecutor-General input and judicial authorization, which have not occurred. With the presidential runoff election scheduled for October 25, legal timelines and jurisdictional privileges make charging or arrest before October 31 highly unlikely according to trader consensus reflected in the 94.8% probability on “No.”