Traders assign a 98.3% implied probability that Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will not face arrest by year-end because no criminal investigation, charges, or credible law-enforcement action against him personally has surfaced. Civil copyright litigation names Amodei alongside the company over training data practices, yet these remain civil disputes without criminal exposure. Recent AI model incidents, including a Claude false tip to Philadelphia police, and ongoing regulatory friction with the Pentagon have produced public scrutiny and court filings but no indictments or detention risks. With only weeks remaining until December 31, any shift would require an unexpected escalation, such as a new criminal referral tied to model behavior or data practices, which current verified developments do not support.