Coca-Cola’s Q3 global unit case volume outlook reflects sustained momentum from the company’s 5% growth in Q2 2026 and the subsequent raise of full-year organic revenue guidance to approximately 5%, tempered by expectations of normalization after FIFA World Cup activations and a one-point lag in concentrate shipments versus unit cases. Strong performance in Trademark Coca-Cola and Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, alongside pricing power and currency tailwinds, underpins the market’s 42.5% implied probability on the 4.5–5.5% band. Regional softness in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia Pacific, combined with affordability investments that pressured price/mix in prior quarters, supports the notable 24.8% weighting on sub-3.5% outcomes. Q3 earnings, scheduled for October 27, represent the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities based on actual shipment data versus analyst models projecting roughly 4% revenue growth.