Persistent inflation at 6.29% in September—more than double the 3% target—combined with El Niño-driven pressures on food and regulated prices, has kept the Banco de la República’s 12.25% policy rate in focus ahead of the October 30 meeting. The September 25-basis-point hike, approved by a divided board, reflected concerns over core inflation reaching multi-month highs and a positive output gap, while analysts in the latest Fedesarrollo survey largely project another 25-basis-point increase to 12.50%. Market-implied odds reflect this tension, with no change slightly favored over a further hike amid worries about peso appreciation, external imbalances, and slowing growth. The decision will hinge on fresh inflation readings and board views on whether supply shocks warrant sustained restrictiveness.