Banco de la República has held its policy rate at 12.25% following the September hike, reflecting persistent headline inflation near 6.3% in September 2026 and technical projections of 6.9% by year-end amid El Niño-driven food and energy pressures plus strong domestic demand. This restrictive stance, with the rate well above the 3% target, underpins the 68.5% implied probability of no change at the December meeting, as analysts anticipate any final adjustment occurring at the October 30 decision before a prolonged pause. Recent communications emphasize monitoring supply shocks and labor cost trends, while market-implied odds for modest hikes or cuts remain low given the already tight monetary conditions and concerns over growth and currency effects. The December outcome will hinge on incoming CPI data and the board’s assessment of inflation convergence into 2027.