**Persistent inflation above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target, combined with robust semiconductor- and AI-driven growth, underpins the 59.5% market-implied probability of a 25 bps hike at the November 2026 meeting.** September headline CPI eased to 2.9% year-on-year while core inflation remained near 2.8%, yet both stayed elevated amid cost-push pressures from energy prices and demand-pull effects from rising incomes. The BOK’s back-to-back 25 bps hikes in July and August to 3.00% reflected preemptive tightening, with Governor Shin Hyun-song reiterating a restrictive stance and the need to monitor inflation, growth, and financial stability. Analyst surveys and bank forecasts (Citibank, Morgan Stanley) widely anticipate a November increase toward a 3.50% terminal rate by early 2027, though some see a possible hold given recent equity-market tightening. The 33.5% odds of no change reflect a minority view prioritizing policy lag effects, while cut probabilities below 4% remain negligible given the data trajectory. The October 22 meeting is expected to deliver a hawkish hold, with November data releases and the BOK’s updated outlook serving as key near-term catalysts for odds adjustments.