Recent Canadian inflation data and labor market softness are shaping trader positioning ahead of the Bank of Canada’s December 9 decision. September CPI rose to 3.1 percent year-over-year, driven by energy prices, while core measures eased to 1.8–1.9 percent; the unemployment rate climbed to 6.5 percent after sizable job losses. These mixed signals, alongside the BoC’s September emphasis on upside inflation risks from oil and tariffs, have produced market-implied odds of 53.5 percent for no change at 2.25 percent and 40.5 percent for a 25-basis-point hike. The October 28 announcement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report will provide fresh forecasts that could shift the near-term rate path priced into December.