Recent Houthi-Saudi tensions and the ongoing blockade on Saudi-linked vessels have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near 26 daily, aligning with the 72.5% market-implied odds for a 25-29 average by end-October. IMF PortWatch data through October 18 show a 7-day average of 26 vessels, down over 29% year-over-year, with tankers particularly affected amid persistent security risks and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. Limited carrier returns have emerged in recent weeks, but elevated war-risk premiums and unresolved regional conflict continue to cap volumes below pre-2023 baselines. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with minimal probability assigned to sharp rebounds or further collapses absent major de-escalation or escalation before month-end.