Lin Kuo-chang, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee, holds the leading position in trader consensus at 63.5% due to consistent head-to-head polling advantages over rivals in Yilan County ahead of the November 28 vote. Wu Tsung-hsien of the Kuomintang, backed by a KMT-TPP opposition alliance after defeating internal challenger Chang Sheng-te in nomination polling and securing Chen Wan-hui’s support, trails at 32% amid efforts to consolidate pan-blue votes. Recent campaign activity includes Lin emphasizing local economic growth, public safety, and green policies during township visits, while Wu has focused on religious and cultural events such as the Mazu festival. Opposition criticism of Lin’s prior state-owned enterprise roles has surfaced but has not shifted the market’s assessment of the race’s structure. The remaining independents register negligible probabilities given limited viability in registered candidate lists.