UEFA's ongoing Negreira investigation, opened in 2023 and never formally closed, remains tied to Spain's parallel criminal proceedings rather than advancing independently. Recent receipt of Real Madrid's substantial October 2026 dossier has prompted ethics inspectors to review materials as part of the existing process, yet Barcelona has faced no new requests or sanctions and continues competing in European fixtures. Spanish courts are not expected to conclude their probe until late 2026 at earliest, with any trial and verdict likely stretching into or beyond 2027. This extended timeline, combined with UEFA's prior 2023 decision against punishment and the procedural link to domestic outcomes, underpins trader consensus that a formal guilt finding by the market's December 2027 cutoff remains improbable.