The September 2026 security agreement between the United States, Denmark, and Greenland resolved prior tensions by expanding U.S. military access, including new defense areas and support for systems like Golden Dome, while explicitly reaffirming Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination. This diplomatic outcome, coupled with Greenland's NATO status and the severe alliance-wide costs of any forcible territorial action against a member, underpins traders' strong consensus against an invasion in 2026. U.S. officials have pursued resource cooperation and strategic positioning through existing channels rather than military means. Late-year shifts remain possible only in extreme scenarios, such as an unforeseen major escalation involving adversarial powers that overrides the current framework.