U.S. military activities in Latin America center on counter-narcotics operations against designated cartel groups through the Shield of the Americas coalition and Operation Southern Spear, including naval strikes, limited land actions, and recent deployments of several hundred troops from the 10th Mountain Division for joint training and exercises in Panama, Honduras, and Colombia. These steps occur with host-nation cooperation and target non-state trafficking networks rather than governments. Earlier actions, such as the 2026 raid capturing Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, aligned with similar objectives and did not escalate to broader territorial control. With no announced plans for state-level invasions, ongoing diplomatic and economic coordination via the coalition, and emphasis on partner capacity-building ahead of the 2026 resolution window, traders assign an 89.5% implied probability to no invasion occurring.