Russia's ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine continues to constrain its capacity for a new conventional invasion elsewhere, as Moscow sustains high attrition rates and focuses resources on incremental advances or defensive postures along the existing front. Danish intelligence and other NATO assessments in September-October 2026 highlighted a low but rising risk of limited incursions, long-range strikes on alliance infrastructure supporting Ukraine, or hybrid actions such as sabotage and drone incursions targeting border states like Estonia or Poland, aimed at testing collective defense commitments without triggering full Article 5 response. Putin has repeatedly denied offensive plans against NATO while pursuing a security buffer inside Ukraine and engaging in intermittent diplomatic contacts. Upcoming factors include 2027 European elections that could influence alliance cohesion, alongside any shifts in U.S. or European support levels that might alter Russian risk calculations for escalation.