**Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 majority in the House (with one independent caucusing with them and two vacancies) heading into the November 3, 2026, elections.** This slim edge has fluctuated due to deaths, resignations, and special elections over the past year, but recent fillings have preserved Republican control without net losses that would hand Democrats the majority. With only two weeks remaining before the midterms, no scheduled special elections or procedural steps are positioned to deliver the multiple flips needed to shift control beforehand. Historical precedent shows chamber majorities rarely change between general elections absent extraordinary circumstances, reinforcing trader consensus around the 98.6% probability that Republicans retain their edge until voters decide the full 435 seats. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome in the brief window include an unexpected resignation, death, or party switch creating an immediate vacancy, though even a rapid special election would face tight timelines, state-specific rules, and low odds of producing the net Democratic gains required. Market pricing reflects this compressed timeframe and the absence of active catalysts capable of overriding the current composition before election day.