Recent opinion polls place Futuro Nazionale, the party founded by Roberto Vannacci in early 2026, in the 6.7–7.8% range, well above the 3% threshold, even after modest recent softening from earlier peaks. This sustained level of support in multiple surveys through mid-October 2026 underpins trader consensus on a high probability of clearing the bar in the next general election, scheduled no later than December 2027. The party’s emergence as a distinct far-right force has drawn consistent backing on issues such as immigration and traditional values, while the new Stabilicum electoral law and ongoing coalition dynamics have not altered its standalone polling trajectory enough to threaten the threshold. Minor fluctuations remain secondary to the established base of support.