France’s fragmented National Assembly and minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu continue to shape trader views on timely passage of the 2027 budget by year-end, with the 58% implied probability for “Yes” reflecting both procedural tools and persistent risks. The revenue portion faces a key vote on October 20, followed by the full text on November 17, within the 70-day constitutional window that could trigger government ordinances if needed. Recent Socialist decisions against supporting no-confidence motions have eased immediate threats and supported narrower French-German yield spreads, while the administration targets a 5% of GDP deficit through roughly €43-54 billion in cuts. Elevated borrowing costs near multi-year highs and EU fiscal scrutiny add pressure for resolution before December 31, though election-year dynamics and potential last-minute amendments keep outcomes contested.