France's two-round presidential system requires a candidate to obtain an absolute majority in the first round to avoid a runoff, a threshold rarely approached amid France's multiparty landscape. As of late 2026, polling shows vote shares dispersed across major blocs including the National Rally, left-wing coalitions, and centrist or moderate contenders, consistent with historical patterns where no outright first-round winner has emerged since 1965. This fragmentation underpins the strong trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or sudden shifts in turnout among key voter groups could still alter alignments before the 2027 vote.