Incumbent José Maria Neves holds a structural edge in Cape Verde’s November 15 presidential contest, backed by the PAICV’s parliamentary majority secured in May 2026 and his own prior first-round win. With six candidates on the ballot—including main opposition challenger Joana Rosa of the MpD—the field remains fragmented, raising the prospect that no single contender reaches the absolute majority required to avoid a runoff. Recent party conventions and candidate approvals have clarified the lineup without shifting momentum dramatically, while the campaign period opens only in late October. Traders appear to weigh Neves’s incumbency and party infrastructure against the risk of vote splitting, producing the current 64.5% implied probability for an outright first-round result.