Recent tensions within NATO center on U.S. President Trump's repeated criticisms of allies' defense spending and refusal to support U.S. operations in the Iran conflict, including efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has labeled the alliance a "paper tiger" and signaled reconsideration of membership, though he affirmed continued U.S. participation at the July 2026 Ankara summit. A 2023 U.S. law requires congressional approval for withdrawal, creating procedural barriers. European members have responded by raising spending targets, exploring "NATO 3.0" burden-sharing models, and conducting selective defense talks that exclude some allies. No formal exit notices have been issued by any member, and upcoming Pentagon deployment reviews plus ongoing diplomatic frictions represent the main near-term catalysts that could influence probabilities.