Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including a confidential SEC filing in June and plans to publicly release its S-1 as soon as late October for a mid-November listing before Thanksgiving, drive the 94.5% market-implied odds favoring it over OpenAI. Recent third-quarter results showing $16.8 billion in revenue and adjusted profitability have bolstered momentum for the Claude developer amid strong investor demand for AI exposure. In contrast, OpenAI has deferred its debut to 2027, citing AI safety priorities, while accelerating a roughly $30 billion private round at a $1.25–1.4 trillion valuation. Traders view these timelines as the dominant factor, though volatility in AI valuations or last-minute regulatory hurdles could still alter outcomes.