Oil prices have held above $85 amid resilient global demand, OPEC+ supply discipline, and geopolitical risks in key producing regions, driving the 65.3% market-implied odds on Oil ≥ $85 combined with Democratic Senate control. Recent Treasury yield movements and steady equity benchmarks reflect limited near-term downside pressure on energy, while Senate polling in competitive states continues to favor Democrats ahead of the midterms. The low 3.4–3.6% probabilities attached to an oil drop below $85 underscore trader consensus on persistent support levels, with upcoming economic releases and any central bank communications on inflation likely to shape near-term price paths.