Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including renewed Iranian attacks on shipping and eroding confidence in the June memorandum of understanding, have driven Brent crude above $116 per barrel and WTI near $103 as of October 23. These levels far exceed the $80 threshold, reinforcing trader positioning in the "No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80" outcomes at 69.5% implied probability for Democratic Senate control and 27.4% for Republicans. Market-implied odds align with broader forecasting consensus showing Democrats favored to flip the chamber in the November midterms amid elevated energy prices and supply risks. Recent volatility in flows and diplomatic setbacks has limited any meaningful shift toward agreement-plus-low-oil scenarios, which trade below 3% combined.