Rebeca Grynspan leads the market at 46.3% because she has topped most Security Council straw polls since July 2026, including the October 16 color-coded ballot where she secured the minimum nine “encourage” votes while drawing only two P5 discourages. Traders price this edge into her probability given the informal GRULAC regional rotation and her background as former Costa Rican vice president and UNCTAD head. Rafael Grossi sits at 30.5% on the strength of his IAEA record and consistent second-place polling, though every candidate now faces at least two P5 objections. Recent color-coded results and the absence of consensus have kept the field open, with no formal recommendation yet and the possibility of additional entrants before a final vote.