Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leads most recent polls ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, positioning him as the frontrunner for prime minister in a fragmented field where no bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority. Eisenkot’s military record as former IDF chief of staff and emphasis on accountability for the October 7, 2023, failures have drawn centrist and center-right support, while he has ruled out serving under or rotating with Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu’s Likud trails slightly, buoyed by his security-focused campaign and recent U.S. endorsement but weighed down by coalition fatigue and legal issues. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad alliance and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu add depth to the opposition bloc, though Arab parties remain largely excluded from coalition calculations by major Zionist lists. This deadlock and Eisenkot’s polling edge drive the market’s implied probabilities.