Trader consensus on arrests before December 31, 2026, centers on former U.S. intelligence officials facing scrutiny over prior official conduct, including John Brennan and James Comey, alongside figures such as Mahmoud Khalil and international politicians like Lee Jae-myung. Recent congressional hearings, Senate testimony invoking privileges, and ongoing federal investigations into intelligence matters or related proceedings have shaped positioning, with some outcomes reflecting active grand jury reviews or court timelines. International cases involve domestic legal processes in South Korea, Spain, and the Middle East that could produce detentions or surrenders meeting resolution criteria. Markets assign varying implied probabilities based on procedural status, with lower odds for many former U.S. executives due to statutes of limitations and confirmation hurdles. Key upcoming catalysts include remaining 2026 court dates, committee actions, and any new indictments before year-end.