Republicans hold a commanding position among white voters in the Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, reflected in the 89.5% market price versus 4.8% for Democrats. Recent October 2026 polls, including those from ActiVote, On Point, TSU/YouGov, and Trafalgar, show Paxton leading white voters by margins of 15–30 points, driven by strong support among non-college-educated whites and rural/suburban demographics. This pattern aligns with longstanding Texas voting trends where Republicans dominate among this bloc even as the overall contest remains competitive. Early voting, which began October 19, and turnout patterns among white voters could influence final shares, though no major late shifts have altered the established divide.